img courtesy: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-03/satellite-images-destruction-at-oil-refinery-iran-nuclear-base/106408822
Volatility is the real feature as Martin Armstrong has discussed.
Observable outcomes = classic crony nationalist capitalism with big-sector winners, broad consumer/taxpayer pain, and bigger government spending. That overlaps with “elite capture” critiques but directly contradicts the de-growth, anti-fossil, globalist “you will own nothing and be happy.” President Trump DOES NOT appear to be aiding the 4th Reich.
Yes, the average consumer is a net loser. Higher costs at the pump, store, and utility bills outweigh any indirect gains. The pain is uneven: hits harder in rural/driving areas, less in dense cities with public transit or EVs.
You get one of two sides: Republicans who drive energy policy and create wars for energy money and the MIC, or Socialist Democrats who change laws to erode the Constitution while advocating civil rights and defacing your culture. Each side plays you to make windfall $$$ – to enrich themselves. That’s how the system works. That’s the America you live in and it’s about to get uglier.
WHO ARE THE WINNERS?
Certainly not American consumers. A sustained $10/bbl oil increase adds ~$450/year to the average household’s costs.
Shale companies (Exxon, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, independents), refiners, and LNG exporters are seeing record margins from $100+ Brent + war premium. Stocks in the sector have rallied hard (some up 20–30%+ YTD despite volatility). Jobs in oil/gas states (Texas, North Dakota, etc.) benefit from higher activity.
US producers (Exxon, Chevron, LNG exporters) are printing money — record margins on $100–110+ Brent + war premium. Trump is fast-tracking new US refineries (Brownsville and others coming online). Gulf 5-year rebuild locks in scarcity premium that American energy captures. Defense contractors also cashing in on spending.
Monte Carlo $500B–$1T scenario: Still holds as real risk, but the winners are American producers and reconstruction contractors in the Middle East. That’s why the hedge (urea/naphtha/grain longs + Gulf rebuild plays) still makes sense.
Gulf supplies 35-49 % of global urea trade and a huge slice of naphtha/LPG feedstocks. With those plants offline or force-majeured for years, the price transmission is already baked in.
- Hedging playbook: long grain futures or call spreads (wheat/corn), long urea/DAP swaps or fertilizer ETFs, short-dated oil-product crack spreads to capture the refined-product premium. The 5-year rebuild window gives you a clear carry-trade horizon — buy the physical or futures dip on de-escalation rumors, roll the position.
- Middle-East investment angle: reconstruction plays (Bapco, GPIC, QatarEnergy rebuild contracts) are long-term winners once the shooting stops, but you need the hedge overlay now because near-term cash burn and insurance costs will be brutal.
- Risk: if Trump forces a quick ceasefire and Hormuz reopens in 60–90 days, prices can snap back 20–30 % fast. That’s why the Monte-Carlo $500B loss scenario still matters — your hedge has to survive the drawdown.
This is the clean, numbers-driven view with zero hopium. Use the urea $585–720, naphtha +60–74 %, and regional inflation bands directly in the deck — they are already observable and will only widen with every additional month of disruption.
Fertilizer (the biggest lever)
- Urea spot/retail: $585–720/t (US Gulf delivered). Pre-war baseline was $450–500; that’s a 20–50 % jump in <3 weeks.
- Why: Gulf ammonia/urea capacity offline + natural-gas feedstock prices exploding from Qatar curtailments. Natural gas is 70–80 % of urea production cost; when LNG benchmarks double, urea follows.
- Downstream: DAP/MAP and potash also +15–30 % because global buyers (India, Brazil, Europe) are panic-bidding the remaining supply.
- Duration: 5-year rebuild means no relief until 2031 on Gulf volumes. Non-Gulf producers (Russia, China, North Africa) cannot fully backfill without their own gas/shipping constraints.
The real pain is input-cost crush for the 2026 crop:
- Fertilizer bill for US Midwest farmer: +25–40 %.
- Diesel for planting/harvest: +35–45 %.
- Result: Many marginal acres (especially wheat in Europe, corn in Ukraine/Black Sea) get skipped or switched. USDA-style planting-intent surveys (early signals) already show 3–7 % acreage cuts in high-cost regions.
Food-market impact by region
United States
- Direct food CPI lift: extra 0.5–2.0 % through 2026 (on top of baseline).
- Transmission: higher diesel + packaging (from naphtha) + fertilizer → meat/dairy/processed food prices. Fresh produce less hit because domestic, but bread, cereals, snacks see clearest pass-through.
- Grocery inflation already re-accelerating; another 1–1.5 % is realistic if energy stays $100+ Brent. No “food shortage,” just sticker shock.
Europe
- Worse: extra 1.5–3.5 % food inflation.
- Reasons: higher reliance on imported urea (Gulf was 40 %+ of EU supply), sky-high gasoil for trucking, and winter-gas substitution costs. Eastern EU + UK planting intentions already down sharply. Expect bread, dairy, and vegetable oil prices to lead the upside.
China
- Dual hit: manufacturing inputs (plastics/chemicals from naphtha) + food CPI.
- China imports ~15–20 Mt urea/year + large grain volumes. Landed costs up 25–35 %; domestic fertilizer plants already running flat-out on coal/gas. Pork and edible-oil prices will feel it first. Overall CPI pressure: +0.8–2 % additive from ag/energy channel. Beijing will subsidize, but exporters (toys, electronics, apparel) absorb higher packaging/chemical costs — bad for margins.
Has a Messiah Been Chosen?
NO.
As of March 20, 2026, there is no credible, widely recognized evidence that anyone—fringe, mainstream, or otherwise—has been definitively “chosen” or proclaimed as the Messiah/Moshiach, Mahdi, or equivalent figure in any major religion or culture, with acceptance from established religious authorities, large followings, or verifiable fulfillment of traditional prophecies.
Rabbi Isser Zalman Weisberg, a Chabad-affiliated or independent lecturer on Jewish eschatology based in Toronto/Canada):
- He has discussed prophetic timelines from the Book of Daniel (e.g., 1290 and 1335 days/years linked to the Dome of the Rock’s construction in 692 CE), calculating a window for Moshiach’s arrival ending around 2027.
- Some of his talks/videos reference the “absolute deadline” for redemption as the end of the Jewish year 5787, which corresponds to October 2, 2027 (the start of Rosh Hashanah 5788 in the Gregorian calendar).
- He has framed Donald Trump as a “non-Jewish messiah” (comparable to biblical Cyrus), symbolically “anointed” via events like the 2024 assassination attempt (linked to Exodus 21:6’s ear-piercing for servitude), to aid Israel’s redemption and potentially pave the way for the true Moshiach (e.g., rebuilding the Temple or shifting global focus to Jerusalem).
- These are interpretive teachings, lectures, and online content (e.g., YouTube videos, interviews), not an official proclamation from a major organization like Chabad-Lubavitch central leadership. Mainstream Chabad emphasizes preparing for Moshiach without naming candidates or setting hard deadlines beyond general anticipation.
But every Orthodox sect has a candidate ready to go! Or could potentially provide one.
Matthew 24:21 For then there will be great tribulation, such as has not been since the beginning of the world until this time, no, nor ever shall be. 22 And unless those days were shortened, no flesh would be saved; but for the elect’s sake those days will be shortened.
23 “Then if anyone says to you, ‘Look, here is the Christ!’ or ‘There!’ do not believe it. 24 For false christs and false prophets will rise and show great signs and wonders to deceive, if possible, even the elect. 25 See, I have told you beforehand.
26 “Therefore if they say to you, ‘Look, He is in the desert!’ do not go out; or ‘Look, He is in the inner rooms!’ do not believe it. 27 For as the lightning comes from the east and flashes to the west, so also will the coming of the Son of Man be.
Which means everyone will see Jesus arriving. It won’t be a sceret, but occurs openly for everyone to see.
Anything before this event will be false Christ’s or false Messiah’s. Any selected candidate from any Orthodox sect will be a fraud and considered the anti-christ. The persona will not be a replacement for Jesus returning, nor will it save the world, or be the voice for the Jewish people or the world. If this person shows up and is declared the Messiah it will be a deception and undoubtably another sign that we are in the end times and that the end of the age is at hand.
So go ahead and breakout your frauds! It changes nothing.
YHWH controls all – you money grubbers control nothing. The attempts of the 4th Reich have failed and will continue to do so. Any choice or display of a false Messiah brings more chaos and destruction on your head. The prophecy does not read like you want it too. You have allegorized not only scripture but your false beliefs and superstitions.
YHWH has arisen for His names sake and I expect the hook to be placed in the nose of the Turks as the Levant is destabilized and destroyed. You will loathe yourselves and your so-called leaders according to prophecy – that is guaranteed.
The ONLY prophecy that will come true is what Jesus and Nevi’im already told you. The Rod of Iron is what YHWH promises.
